Thailand Heading into a Civil War?

Red shirt protestors

The violence in Thailand shows no signs of abating and the ferocity of the violence seems to be escalating to catastrophic levels with no signs that an agreement can be reached between the Abhisit government and the “red shirt” protestors loyal to ousted former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. While the government has set the end of the year to hold elections, the protestors have demanded that elections be held immediately. So far scores of people have died in the violence, 25 alone on the 10 April, what many are describing as the darkest day in Thailand’s history.

For those who do not know, the background of this read my article from last year: http://damien-crankyramblings.blogspot.com/2009/04/when-will-thailand-grow-up.html

In short there is a political impasse in Thailand where the “yellow shirts” aligned with the current government and backed by the political and social elites of Bangkok are pitted against the “red shirts” who are made up of the rural poor from mostly the northern regions of Thailand and aligned with the former billionaire prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

The political temperature started to climb when many of those “educated” from certain sections of the community accused Thaksin of corruption and of amassing great wealth for his family. They tried to oust him using all means, including the army, courts and via the media and succeeded only for him to be replaced by other members of his TRT party. The “yellow shirts” didn’t like these replacements either and put considerable pressure on them to resign and once again succeeded.

The courts subsequently found Thaksin and his wife guilty of corruption and describing himself as a political casualty, Thaksin decided to flee the country to avoid prosecution. The “yellow shirts” plan to create political change while neutralising Thaksin’s influence succeeded with the help of the courts, military and some say by other “very important” people. With the main leaders of the TRT either charged in court or in exile the “yellow shirts” formed a new government with the help of other parties with a very loose coalition but a majority nonetheless.

The tables have now turned and the “red shirts” are getting disenchanted by Abhisit and his government as the promised date to hold elections never materialised. They have now given the government the ultimatum to hold elections immediately or face the consequence of more demonstrations.

There are a few things to note here:

Firstly, the king can put an end to this violence by mediating and giving his guidance which is revered among Thais. He’s done it successfully in the past and he can do it again. He has however, chosen not to do citing his poor health and his hope that Thailand’s fragile democracy and immature politics can one day stand on it’s own two feet.

Secondly, the “yellow shirts” who are under the political party of PAD which stands for People’s Action for Democracy by their actions do not really understand democracy due to the fact that they want greater voting rights for the “more educated” and less weighting on the votes of the rural poor, who in general voted for Thaksin in the last election. More over, they came to power using any which means except democratically, via the ballot box. They tried political pressure and when that didn’t work they tried the military and when that did not get the desired effect they tried demonstrations and when that didn’t work, they tried the courts.

Thirdly the recent violence in Thailand cannot be attributed solely to the “red shirts” as it takes two to tango. Recent reports have indicated the military have been given the go ahead to use live bullets on the protestors. Many have compared the casualties in this round of demonstrations to that held by the “yellow shirts” in 2008 and have labelled the “red shirts” extreme terrorist by virtue of the fact that so many have died this time round compared to last. As I said, it takes two to tango. Previously, the “yellow shirts” were given the red carpet by the military to march to the airport to hold it hostage and we all know what happed after that. Thailand’s economy came to a standstill. It was a case of the military and the “yellow shirts” being aligned with one another which explains, even with similar fierce demonstrations held by the PAD in 2008, not many casualties were reported. After three weeks of seizing the airport and shutting Thailand for business causing the country to lose billions of baht, not ONE protestor or its leaders have been help accountable by the police or the government. This time round, we hear of the heavy handedness of the army and the possible use of live ammunition against the demonstrators whom the government has labelled as ‘terrorists’.

Abhisit (above pic) and Thaksin (below pic)

It’s going to be interesting to see how this will be resolved but I would imagine elections being held as soon as possible, free and fair votes where a poor farmer’s vote carries the same weighting as an elite Bangkok businessman and some give and take between the two sides.

Under the Thaksin government, the fate of the rural poor improved. The free health care, subsidised lunches for school kids, subsidised utility bills for the poor, improved infrastructures in villages, fast track issuing of land titles and minimum prices set for agriculture like rice and rubber are just some of the improvements in the lives of the rural poor under the Thaksin government. If the Abhisit government want to be the legitimate government, then it must hold free and fair elections immediately and win it. It has to be able to convince the majority of the voters that it is the best government for the people, poor as well as the elite. It cannot accuse Thaksin of having been in power only because of the rural votes. It has to do something to win the hearts and minds of the rural poor as well and earn their votes and not just by alienating them by accusing them as “less educated”. The majority speaks loudest and that’s what a true democracy is. Thailand has to grow up and realise that and not take the course it's taking right now, otherwise a civil war is not out of the question.

Australia's Broadband Internet Connection - What a Joke

What we have is a fully developed rich country on the verge of a commodities boom but unable to provide it's people basic internet connection. Yes I'm talking about Australia and not Thailand or Cambodia because that's how bad it goes to be able to find a country whose internet provisions are as bad as Australia's.

I've just moved in to a new house so one of the things to do is to get a phone line and internet connection. Firstly you have to read and decipher the various internet and phone plans different providers have on offer and decide which ones suits your needs best and then you have to call them up and wait 30 minutes to speak with one of their representatives. One provider took 10 days just to tell me that Naked DSL was not available in my area! Ten days just to tell me that?

Then I went on to call another service provider who told me that they were not sure if my area was "serviceble" and would call me back after checking with their technical department. They never did call me back. I then proceeded to call another service provider who could not confirm if the fast internet was available or not but we needed to wait about 15 working days to find out! At this point I figured this was getting out of hand and the joke was on me but had to remind myself that some of these internet service providers I was calling were the premier service providers in the country and it was not that my house was located in the middle of the desert or something like that.

I figured I'd give it one last chance and proceeded to call the second largest ISP in Australia. They in turn told me that it seems that the line in my house seem to be connected and there was nothing they could do to override the line. I had to call the line providers to get them to disconnect the line. I then proceeded to call Telstra the largest telco in Australia and they told me they could not disconnect the line to MY HOUSE because of "legal reasons". I was gobsmacked and at this point was ready to send an email to Australia's communications minister to complain. I thought better of that and proceeded to ask the Telstra rep where this left me if the owner did not cancel the line? She effectively told me "you're in the shits then".

I then proceeded to call back the ISP who told me about the connected line and queried if this information he gave me was correct. After some checking and talking with his "boss" I was told that the information he gave about the existing Telstra line was not absolutely accurate and that was an obstacle they could overcome however, a new obstacle cropped up and that it was the fast broadband was not available and only wireless was available! At this point in time I was ready to cry.

He then proceeded to put me on hold again to talk to his "boss" and like magic, the fast internet magically was available again. I proceeded to sign up and we'll see after 10 waorking days if my quest for internet comes to fruition or was just an exercise in futility.

Could you imagine, I was not looking for a heart transplant donor, or doing eye surgery or applying for exclusive share placements. All I wanted was the freaking basic internet connection and I've had to call no less than six ISPs and all of them stuffed me around to my wits end. Some could not provide internet to my area, some did not call me back, some could only provide the slower speeds and almost none of them could provide any accurate information as to the availability of the fast internet connection to my area. As I said I don't live in the desert or the jungles, in fact the school is just 50 metres from my house, so for the life of me can't understand why the infrastructure is not in place to get fast speed internet.

Previously I had used a mobile broadband (wireless) service with two different service providers. The reliability of the connection was terrible and I thought that it was just my area, but having spoken to others who have had similar experiences even with other service providers, I found out I was not unique in this farcical experience. You could imagine having a straight flush in an online internet poker game where money was on the table and not being able to go all in because your internet connection was struggling to get back online. So the computer would automatically fold on your behalf if it didn't receive a response in the stipulated time set. I tried running to re-cycle the power to the modem etc. but it was bordering on ridiculous and gave up altogether. I almost smashed the computer after that experience. Imagine folding on a straight flush!! Can you imagine using online banking and in the middle of a $1 million (I'm just boasting here) international telegraphic transfer the internet line went dead and you could not tell whether the transaction went through or not. Well I could and it happened to me before and I'm not alone on this.

When I say "fast speed" don't get fooled in thinking 50Mbps like Singapore and Korea. I'm only talking fast speed with reference to Australia, which is 20Mbps. Many people in the country areas don't even have internet at all and some are still using dial up. In fact the ISPs are still selling dial up like hot cakes as it seems that that's the most reliable type of internet connection available in Australia. It's nothing less than a joke, that a country whose GPD per capita is in the high $30ks cannot provide basic and high speed broadband connection to its people.